How Will Boomers Affect Social Security?

Social Security faces a financial challenge from the impending retirement of the largest generation in American history, the 76 million persons born in the “baby boom” years, from 1946 through 1964. Boomers will begin to reach age 62 in 2008. The cost of Social Security will rise faster than tax income because the population over age 65 will grow faster than the working-age population. Both the baby boom generation and increasing life expectancy after age 65 contribute to an aging population. When Social Security began in 1935, life expectancy at age 65 was 12½ years. In 2011, it was 20.0 years for women and 17.7 years for men. By 2030, it is projected to be 21.1 for women and 19.2 years for men. But these gains in life expectancy are not shared evenly throughout the population, with less-advantaged groups generally seeing smaller increases in life expectancy. While the number of beneficiaries will grow, tax rates remain unchanged in current law.

By 2032, when the youngest boomers will have reached 67, Americans age 65 and older are projected to number 75 million, nearly doubled from 39 million in 2007. The beneficiary-to-worker ratio, which compares the number of people drawing benefits to the number of workers paying into Social Security, will rise from 35 per 100 in 2011 to 49 per 100 in 2035. 

A broader measure, a consumer-to-worker ratio, portrays a smaller increase in the support burden on workers. The consumer-to-worker ratio compares everyone workers support – themselves, children, retirees, and other adults out of the workforce – to the number of workers. When baby boomers were children in 1960, every 100 workers supported 262 people in total. After the baby boomers grew up and were in the workforce by 1995, the total support burden declined to 200 persons for every 100 workers. By 2030, when the boomers are age 65 and older, the support burden is expected to rise to 221 persons per 100 workers. This would be a smaller support burden than when baby boomers were children.

Consumer-to-Worker Ratio Over Time

For more information, see:

• Social Security: Just the Facts (video)
• Social Security Benefits, Finances, and Policy Options: A Primer
• Social Security Finances: Findings of the 2012 Trustees Report, Social Security Brief No. 39
• Quick Answers to Common Questions about Social Security
• Testimony of Virginia P. Reno at "Social Security at 75: More Necessary Than Ever"
• Building on Social Security's Success, A Briefing Paper
• Can We Afford Social Security When Baby Boomers Retire?, Social Security Brief No. 22