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Robert, Stephen & Elaine
Very interesting discussion. I'll have to grab each of the additional resources when I get a chance. I have one thought, though, the recipiency rate and what it tells us. Yes, fewer unemployed will get benefits if the job from which they exited was not covered by UI, like independent contract workers. But fewer will receive UI if, during good times, the fraction of workers leaving jobs by choice increases. I suspect that the period of unemployment for workers not receiving UI has been getting shorter as well, given the strong job market. I'm not very familiar with the literature on labor force dynamics but now I'm tempted to dig deeper. Seems like the three of you have raised some very interesting questions with multiple interpretations and difficult solutions. Well done.

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